15 Apr 2015

Which teams will get relegated from the Premiership?

Things are now getting very tight. So who is going to get relegated. We will all have personal views on which teams are likely to go down. But let’s look at the statistics involved.
Historically, 33 points means that you are very, very likely to get relegated. 37 points gives the team a better than even chance of survival and 43 points guarantees survival.
But, there are of course variables involved. So let’s look at this seasons battle for survival and see how many points are likely to be needed for survival.

• Since the Premier league went to 20 teams – 19 seasons ago, no team who has reached 43 points has been relegated and no team who have achieved 33 points have stayed up.
• Therefore, on a statistical and historical basis we can assume a team will need between 34 and 42 points to stay up.

The closer the number is to 34 points, the greater percentage chance there is of being relegated. Using this historical data, we can create a percentage model of points gained against a percentage chance of survival.

• 33 points gives a 0% chance of survival.
• 34 points gives a 4.35% chance of survival.
• 35 points gives a 15.8 % chance of survival.
• 36 points gives a 38.1 % chance of survival.
• 37 points gives a 57.9 % chance of survival.
• 38  points gives a 71.5%  chance of survival.
• 39 points gives a 81.3 % chance of survival.
• 40 points gives a 91.7 % chance of survival.
• 41 points gives a 97.8 % chance of survival.
• 42 points gives a 98.4 % chance of survival.
• 43 points gives a 100 % chance of survival.

In addition, no team over the last 19 years of the Premier league have been relegated with a goal better than – 14 and teams playing at home on the final day – regardless of how precarious their position – survive 69 per cent of the time, compared to 42 per cent for teams playing away from home. That’s a far bigger disparity than you would normally expect to see from home advantage.

So factoring in the above statistics, where does that leave the current Premier league relegation battle?

Leicester City

Current situation – they have 25 points from 31 games and to obtain a better than 50% chance of survival, they will need another 12 points from their last 7 games. They have a goal difference of -19

They have won their last 2 games, have 5 of their remaining fixtures at home, have a current goal difference of -19 and have to play 3 of their relegation rivals, including playing at home V QPR in the last game.

Currently Leicester have achieved 0.81 points per game. They will need to get to 1.71 points per game in their last 7 to have over a 50% chance of survival, over double what they have achieved so far.

For – Current form 2 wins on the bounce, 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 games: 5 of their seven games are home: They play 3 of their relegation rivals

Against – To gain 1.71 points per game would mean they have to show the same form as Liverpool have shown over 32 games; Their form over 25 games is probably a true reflection of their level: Whilst they have to play 3 of their relegation rivals, 2 of them are away from home: They have to play Chelsea

Verdict – At a stretch they will get a maximum of 10 points, taking them to 35 points, which will give them a 15.8 % chance of survival.

Leicester City Remaining Fixtures

Burnley

Current situation – they have 26 points from 32 games and to obtain a better than 50% chance of survival, they will need another 11 points from their last 6 games. Currently Burnley have achieved 0.812 points per game. They will need to get to 1.83 points per game in their last 6 to have over a 50% chance of survival, well over double what they have achieved so far. They have a goal difference of -24

For – A never die spirit. A goal scorer in Danny Ings: They have to play 3 of their relegation rivals: They don’t have to play any of the teams fighting for Champions League qualification or the Premier league title

Against – Needing to get 1.813 points per game: 4 of their last 6 games are away from home: 2 of the matches against their relegation rivals are away from home

Verdict – Maybe a maximum of 9 points, taking them to 35 points, giving them like Leicester a 15.8 % chance of survival.

Burnley Remaining Fixtures

QPR

Current situation  – 26 points from 33 games and to obtain a better than 50% chance of survival, they will need another 11 points from their last 5 games.

QPR have achieved 0.787 points per game. They will need to get to 2.2 points per game in their last 5 to have over a 50% chance of survival, well over double what they have achieved so far. They have a goal difference of -21

For – They have a goal scorer in Charlie Austin. They have shown great battling qualities recently

Against – 2.2 points per game to have a slightly better than 50% chance of survival – Man Utd form over the season!! 3 of their last 5 games are away from home, including both Man City and Liverpool away: Current form 4 points out the last 6 games.

Verdict – The most points I can see QPR getting in their last 5 games is 7, taking them to 33 points, which statistically means they are 100% certain to be relegated!

QPR Remaining Fixtures

Hull City

Current situation – they have 28 points from 32 games and to obtain a better than 50% chance of survival, they will need another 9 points from their last 6 games.

Currently they have achieved 0.875 points per game. They will need to get to 1.5 points per game in their last 6 to have over a 50% chance of survival, nearly double what they have achieved so far. They have a goal difference of -16

For – A manager who is experienced and been in this position before. 4 of their last 6 games are at home, including Burnley. They need to find enough form to get maybe two wins

Against – They have to play Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal all at home: Their recent form, only 2 points from their last 6 games: They have a horrendous run in, really, really tough

Verdict – Maybe a maximum of 7 points, taking them to 35 points, giving them a 15.8 % chance of survival. They are in big trouble, 7 points seems a long, long way away

Hull City Remaining Fixtures

Sunderland

Current situation – they have 29 points from 32 games and to obtain a better than 50% chance of survival, they will need another 8 points from their last 6 games. They have a goal difference of -23. Currently Sunderland have achieved 0.906 points per game. They will need to get to 1.33 points per game in their last 7 to have over a 50% chance of survival,

For – They have points in the bag and aren’t in the bottom 3: The players have been here before and escaped, last season they were in a much worse position. They play Leicester at home

Against – 4 of their last 6 games are away from home. Their last two games are away at Arsenal and Chelsea

Verdict – Maybe, just maybe 6 points, taking them to 35 points and a 15.8 % chance of survival. But, giving them 6 points is a struggle, given their form and difficult run in. Think they will need to get those 6 points in the first 4 games as I can’t see them getting anything from their last two games. They don’t want to be in the bottom 3 the last game of the season.

Sunderland Remaining Fixtures

Aston Villa

Current situation – they have 32 points from 33 games and to obtain a better than 50% chance of survival, they will need another 5 points from their last 5 games. They have a goal difference of -21. Currently Villa have achieved 0.969 points per game. They will need to get to 1 point per game in their last 5 to have over a 50% chance of survival,

For – They have points in the bag and just have to maintain their season form. Benteke is scoring goals and they seem to be playing with a new found confidence. The FA cup, could be great for them, but also could be a distraction. They have 3 of their last 5 games at home. Their last game is against Burnley at home.

Against – The FA could become a distraction. Benteke gets injured.

Verdict – No real problem, they will comfortably get the 5 points they need, wouldn’t be surprised if they get to 40 points

 Villa Remaining Fixtures

West Bromwich Albion

Current situation – they have 33 points from 32 games and to obtain a better than 50% chance of survival, they will need another 4 points from their last 6  games. They have a goal difference of -16. Currently WBA have achieved 1.03 points per game. They will need to get 0.66 points per game in their last 6 to have over a 50% chance of survival,

For – They have points in the bag and just have to maintain their season form.  Tony Pulis has never been relegated and has been here many, many times before. The players have been here before.

Against – Current form has been a real worry, they have lost the last 3 games, including two very winnable games at home against QPR and Leicester. They have 4 of their last 6 games away from home. They have to play Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal

Verdict – Getting back to being strong, organised and defensive will get them the points they need. Can see them getting 6 points from their 6 games, taking them to 39 points and guaranteed safety. But they don’t really want to be looking over their shoulder too much with two games to play.

 WBA Remaining Fixtures

Newcastle United

Current situation – they have 35 points from 32 games and to obtain a better than 50% chance of survival, they will need another 2 points from their last 6  games. They have a goal difference of -18. Currently Newcastle have achieved 1.09 points per game. They will need to get 0.33 points per game in their last 6 to have over a 50% chance of survival,

For – They have points in the bag and just have to maintain their season form. Even Newcastle in the current form can get two points, can’t they?

Against – They are in free fall and have lost their last 5 games

Verdict – Somehow they will get the two points they need and survive.

Newcastle  United Remaining Fixtures

Overall Verdict

It’s going to be tight and a roller coast of results and emotions.

QPR will be relegated before the last game of the season. Currently book makers are offering  4 to one on them staying up

This will leave Leicester, Burnley, Hull and Sunderland all needing points, possibly in the last game. 2 relegation spots, 4 teams.

In Reality, all 4 are going to struggle to get to 37 points. I can’t see how this will not go to the last game and I think it will be that tight that goal difference might play a huge part.

Despite Leicester currently being bottom, 5 home games in the last 7. A  current goal difference of -19 and playing their last game at home against QPR will probably be enough to keep them safe. Interestingly, the bookies have put them above Burnley and level in the betting stakes with Sunderland and Hull on 4/5. I think they will just scrape by.

Burnley – Second favourites with the bookies to go down on 5/4. They will probably need to take it to the last game, where they play Villa away. If they can drag it out that long and if Villa are safe in the last game, I think they will have a chance. But, I think despite their brilliant spirit, their goal difference – currently -24 and the last game being away, will all count against them and they will get relegated – maybe on goal difference!

Hull – I think they will stay up, more by default than on their own efforts. Key game will be against Burnley on May 9 at home. Their goal difference is currently 8 better than Burnley’s and that just might save them. Massively difficult last game against Man Utd, but I think they will just about stay up, on goal difference.

Sunderland – Key game is against Leicester at home on May 16. Last two games against Arsenal and Chelsea away, good luck!! Current goal difference of -23 could cost them. Don’t think they will escape two years running. Sorry Sunderland fans, relegated